Figure 1. Improved ESA Technology R&D (TRD) definition process
Thanks to the unique global capabilities that it brings, space technology will be a major strategic tool in the next century. In addition to their broad economic potential, space technology will help society overcome several threats to the quality of life on Earth or even to human life itself. In that sense, space technology is fundamental to sustaining security in all its forms - political, economic, military and ecological - in a truly global approach. At the current time, however, space initiatives are going through a transition period and are gradually settling into a mature industrial and commercial sector where the basic technologies exist, where market forces determine major developments (which are influenced by many global and regional players), and where public budgets remain constant or are even diminishing. Private investment is therefore becoming increasingly more important for financing application-oriented and commercially-driven space activities.
The role of space agencies is changing. As a result of the relentless reduction in public funding in recent years, space agencies are tending towards serving more as a catalyst to industry rather than directly financing commercially-driven space activities. Scientific and exploratory activities and space research and technology programmes will increasingly be undertaken and managed most effectively through cooperating national and supra-national space agencies. New relationships will evolve between space agencies and industry, with the agencies providing technical and financial support and sharing the risks for the pre-competitive research and development phase and actively promoting emerging and potential applications. Furthermore, synergy between military and civilian developments as well as between terrestrial and civilian space systems may very well contribute to the future strength and structure of the space industry.
Forecasting the technological preparation needs for the future is not an easy task today because many trends established in the past are no longer valid or are changing rapidly. The economic, cultural, institutional and technical environment of space activities is adapting to the realities of the worldwide commercial, and highly competitive, marketplace on the one hand, and to the public cooperative projects for peace-keeping, environmental protection, ecological and space exploration and manned programmes on the other.
This article outlines a road map for space-technology development by presenting a global overview of major future space activities of major relevance for Europe, together with their associated technology fields. A synthesis of their major programmatic aspects and technical drivers is presented in Table 1.
Space Sector Timing, Mission and Budget Type Drivers for Technology R&D
Public and Application Services
- Weather - 'Long-term service guaranteed' approach - Satellite constellations
- Navigation (> 30 years) necessary - Advanced ground computation and
- Disaster management - Public infrastructure financing with simulation features
delegated exploitation - Often, available services have to be tied
together by appropriate 'merging
technologies'
Commercial Services
- Mobile telecommunications - Global financial and insurance - End-to-end turn-key approach
- Multi-media arrangements dictate schedule for - Commercial services will go 'fully digital'
- Broadcasting early return on investment - Interface with terrestrial means and
- Navigation services and traffic - Public guarantees expecteds standards crucial
management - Typically 3-4 years from kick-off to launch - On-board processing for comms./nav.&
- Global, regional and local - Constellation build-up over several years Earth obs. needed for simpler user end
applications of Earth observation - Constellations from a few to several tens - Use of higher frequencies (> 30 GHz)
of satellites - Continuous services
- Ground stations for constellation control
Science and Exploration
- Astrophysics - 10 year cycle typical for large missions - Usually one-of-a-kind
- Planetology - Public funding from R&D budgets - Very demanding developments in all
- Moon/Mars exploration - International programme setup technical fiels
- Earth observation - Technology-push approach
- Microgravity - Mission success oriented
- Direct man/machine interactivity
Space Transportation
- Future re-usable systems - 10-20 years of development - Improved cryo-propulsion
- Small expendable launchers - Operational flexibility - Re-usability
- Guaranteed availability - Low cost
Man in Space
- Space infrastructure - 20 year development time - Design update during lifetime
- Crew transportation - Public funding for development and - maintenance and reconfiguration of
- Logistics, payload support operation elements
- Indefinite system lifetime - Hability
- Very high reliability
The missions are structured in accordance with their programmatic background and according to the following service domains:
A selection (from Dossier 0) of medium-term plans for satellite-based missions and services, together with a synthesis of their technical requirements, is presented in Tables 2-5. As far as their expected market potential is concerned, it should be borne in mind that:
Finally, it can be expected that the future of the space sector will be characterised by the increasing role of commercial services on the one hand (especially for multimedia applications), and by several international cooperative programmes addressing global interests on the other (especially Space Station utilisation, space exploration, and risk/ disaster management). The space sector has to adapt to the rapidly evolving opportunities, both in terms of industrial efficiency and R&D strategies.
Major features that will characterise space development in the medium term include the opportunity for mass production of low-cost spacecraft for telecommunications services based on satellite constellations, and the need for high-resolution Earth-observation payloads and related ground-processing techniques.
Major R&D effort will be devoted to the investigation and demonstration of low-cost (reusable?) launchers, whilst the ambitions of the scientific missions will require major advances in a broad range of challenging technologies, particularly for the application of interferometry techniques. The emerging space exploration programmes will also serve as a driver by providing substantial oppor-tunities for more sophisticated applications of robotics and artificial intelligence. Small satellites and micro-technologies are expected to enable improved exploitation of space applications, by reducing the financial risk associated with the related business opportunities.
Service Other Missions (Applications) Technology/Operational Drives
- 4-D traffic weather service («300 m) Weather data and 'nowcasting' - All-day/night instrument in the 0.3 to
- Volcanic-ash warning (GEO, four satellites) 12 µm band
- Ozone measurements 1000 kg - 2.5 MFLOPS on board
- Pollution reduction 400 W - Near-real-time (15 min)
50 kbps
- Snow cover, water equivalent HYDROSAT - P+C-band SAR, 500 m resol.
- Soil moisture (hydrological satellite) - On-board data processing
- Inland-water surveillance SSO, 555 km variable coverage - Local low-cost receiving and processing
1700 kg stations
1100 W up to 75 Mbps
- Ecological mapping: change-detection COSMO/SKYMED(LEOsmall-satellite - Imaging spectrometers, high-resolution
maps(vegetationcover), biomass constellation of three optical TM-like sensors, geometric resolution
estimates and four microwave payloads of less or equal to 3 m
in a 600 km polar orbit)
- Algae bloom - Visible and infrared radiometers and
- Oil-spill detection: localisation and spectrometers
extent of potential oil/chemical spills - High-resolution imaging spectrometers and
- Forest-damage assessment and planning interferometers
- Coastal erosion - Improved (multi-channel) SAR,
polarimetric SAR
- LIDARs
- High-resolution data for near-infrared
(NIR), middle infrared (MIR) and red;
- Improved classification algorithms and
better interface to GII
Service Mission under Study Technology Fields
Multi-media services
Interactive Multimedia 1. Geostationary Satellites Traffic-agile, multibeam antennas
- EUROSKYWAY - (a) miniaturised, highly integrated radio-frequecy
- SPACEWAY (Ka-band) transceive front-ends
- CYBERSTAR - (b) extensive use of VLSI for modems/baseband
switches (on-board processing)
High-capacity,high-mass satellites - (c) intelligent communication control techniques
(earth/ground segment)
Low-cost user earth stations (suitcase)
2. Lower Earth Orbit Satellites - mass produced satellites
- SATIVOD - as (a) and (b) above
- TELEDESIC - briefcase user earth station
HDTV (digital and high- Various from commercial entities N/A
definition TV)
Mobility Services
2nd Generation satellite Low/medium Earth obrits - high-gain multiple spot-beam onboard antennas
Personal Communication - digital on-board signal processing (routing
Services (S-PCS) techniques)
- inter-satellite linking techniques
- intelligent communication control techniques
(levelling)
Sound Broadcast MEDIASTAR - digital audio and data
- audio, data for - 8 h HEO, six satellites - new consumer products (radio CD quality)
traffic, weather, - Three service areas: Europe,
safety, games, etc. N. America, E. Asia
Data-Relay Services
- for space applications Follow-on to ARTEMIS (geostationary) - massive-data-transfer inter-satellite link
- others (security) - same as above
Typical Advanced Services Long-Term GNSS Improvements Technological-Development Sectors - Sole means for aeronautical Improved Signal In Space (SIS) - Very Precise Orbit Determination (VPOD) navigation stand-alone performance techniques - Agriculture (e.g. precision farming) - Inter-satellite ranging - Civil engineering - New signal design - Security and tracking of goods - Waterborne operations Avoidance of external intrusion in - On-board regenerative payloads - Fishing-vessel monitoring the system - On-board clock technology - Coastal engineering - Public transport, rail, road - In-land waterway services Minimisation of ionospheric delay errors - Development of dual-frequency receivers (e.g. channel dredging) - Use of high-frequency technologies (i.e. medium- - Added-value combined navigation/ gain active multibeam user antennas) communication services - Private road traffic monitoring Improved system integrity - Satellite Autonomous Integrity Monitoring (SAIM) and control techniques, i.e. via ISL
Discipline Mission Objective Project Technology Driver
Space - Phased Moon exploration MORO (lunar orbiter) - Lightweight subsystems (cameras,
Exploration and utilisation 1200 kg, 500W, spinner optical sensors, batteries)
- Deployment and operation of
rover/robotic payload LEDA - Throttlable bi-propellant engines(> 3 kN)
on lunar surface; in situ - Night-time survival
measurements Lander - Lightweight long-term energy storage
Rover 3000 kg - Autonom. guidance for landing
(1000 kg dry) - Wheeled-rover locomotion
- Tele-operations/tele-presence techniques
- Robotic manipulators
Support of Mass science and Intermarsnet: four small - Entry thermal protection
exploration missions 70 kg landers - Landing system
- Non-photovoltaic power source
Horizon Comet remote-sensing and ROSETTA - Autonomous advanced navigation techniques
2000 in-situ measurements 3000 kg orbiter releasing two - Very large solar array (50 m²:)
small - Comet-approach camera
45 kg probes - Small-sample acquisition/distribution
Infrared astronomy FIRST - Large telescope antenna with micron accuracy
1 000x71 000 km; 3600 kg; - Cryo-coolers
1 kW; 50 kbps - Heterodyne detectors
Investigation of the Equivalence STEP (M3) SSO; - Very high sensitivity accelerometers
Principle 400 km; 1000 kg; 400 W; - Very low gravitational noise spacecraft
700 kbps - Proportional helium thrusters
Astro-seismology to measure STARS (M3) L5 point; - Triple Reflecting Telescope (TRT in
fluctuations in the light of stars 1200 kg; 550 W; 6 kbps Silicon Carbide (SiC)
Observatory to map fluctuations in COBRAS/SAMBA(M3) - Cryo-cooler
cosmic background L5 point; 1200 kg - 0.1 K open circuit delusion system
550 W; 6 kbps - Multi-frequency mm wave antennas
Horizon Investigation of gravity waves LISA - Ultra-sensitive electrostatic accelerometers
2000 Plus four spacecraft; - Extremely low noise spacecraft
4000 kg total; 850 W - Low-thrust propulsion (e.g. Field Emission
Electric Propulsion) for drag-free control
- Ultra-stable oscillators
Astrometry, cosmology, detection GAIA L5 point; - Picometer ranging system
of new planets 2700 kg; 1 kW; - Time-phase integration CCDs
- Advanced optical detectors
- High mirror alignment stability
Long-baseline - Proportional thrusters (e.g. FEEP)
interferometer - Solid-state gyroscopes
- Laser ranging system 1 µm at 5 km
Science of planetary systems Mission to Mercury - Thermal control for high heat fluxes
- High-temperature mechanisms
- High-temperature GaAs solar cells
- Low-power Stirling coolers
Figure 1. Improved ESA Technology R&D (TRD) definition process
Firstly, the problems and technical challenges of, and the capabilities required for expected space applications are been synthesized into a concise document known as 'Dossier 0'. The latter compiles foreseeable needs, both within and outside ESA programmes, and will form the top-down road map for technology development. By nature, its structure application-driven.
Secondly, emerging technologies and opportunities and the need to maintain industrial momentum in certain key technology areas constitute the bottom-up counter-force. It has been concluded that a disciplinary approach is best for describing a technical vision for this bottom-up process.
Thirdly, the intelligent merging of top-down needs and bottom-up technical trends has led to the establishment of a set of concrete goals for technology R&D, known as the 'Frame Programme'. The latter is meant to be Master Plan, a high-level technology R&D work plan, necessary and sufficient to cover the technology needs of the space missions and applications referred to in Dossier 0.
Fourthly, this Frame Programme must implemented within the technology R&D schemes available. Apart from the ESA TRD Programme(s), national agencies' and non-space TRD Programmes will also be used to cover parts of the overall Frame Programme. The last step before execution the elaboration of the Frame Programme into detailed work plan, and the latter's implementation via a set of contract actions.
The basic structure of the Frame Programme is formed by a set of so-called 'Technology Axes' representing the core disciplines relevant for spaceflight. Some are identified as 'Major Axes', where their relevance is judged particularly high from both the strategic (core-competence) and tactical points of view (market-opportunity).
The funding needs for space Technology Research and Development (TRD) are growing exponentially due to two phenomena:
Figure 2. Major characteristics of future European space activities
For ESA, therefore, it has become clear that the availability of funding will never keep pace with this trend and it must be decided which technical activities are vital to the European space community and thereby deserve priority.
13 Major Axes have been identified:
Space is expected to drive the transition towards a 'service-on-demand' type of business, emphasising the early trans-formation of scientific results into practical applications. A new approach is needed in terms of the pace of technology development, including imaginative multi-source financing agreements between industrial, public and venture-capital sponsors, as well as new legal ground rules.
ESA can support this process very effectively with its technology R&D activities, particularly by:
The strategy for improving the competitiveness of the European space sector should include the introduction of innovative elements into:
The authors would like to acknowledge the specific contributions made by F. Gampe and M. Novara to the preparation of 'Dossier 0', on which this article is largely based.
ESA Bulletin Nr. 88.