Asteroid 2024 YR4 impact risk rises and falls

This GIF depicts the rise and fall of the impact risk associated with asteroid 2024 YR4 in the months following its discovery. On 25 February 2025, ESA’s Planetary Defence Office assessed the risk that 2024 YR4 might impact Earth on 22 December 2032 at just 0.001%, down from as high as 2.8% just a few days beforehand. See the full news article for more information.

Description:

The red dots represent the possible locations of asteroid 2024 YR4 on 22 December 2032. The yellow dot represents its most likely location.

The uncertainty region is measured as the distance between the two most separated red dots. One Earth radius is approximately 6378 km.