Investigating Fermi paradox: agent-based simulation of galactic settlements

Background

The Fermi Paradox is a central open problem in the search for extraterrestrial intelligent life. It arises from the apparent contradiction between the high probability that intelligent life should exist elsewhere in the universe and the complete lack of observational evidence for it. Numerous explanations and speculative solutions have been proposed to account for this absence, many of which rely on physics-based approaches such as diffusion and percolation theory [1,4]. Simulations of the expansion of an exo-civilization in the galaxy suggest that, under certain assumptions, steady states can arise that include both populated clusters and unpopulated regions. Consequently, Earth might reside in one of these unpopulated areas.

Project overview

The population dynamics of an expansion in the galaxy are subject to physical and biological limitations, providing a framework to investigate the Fermi Paradox under realistic constraints. The spatial distribution of stars and exoplanets forms an underlying network that plays a crucial role in this problem [2], due to the vast distances and associated timescales involved. However, a study that explicitly incorporates the detailed characteristics of this stellar and planetary network is still lacking. Another aspect largely absent from current research is the competition and cooperation dynamics that may arise during the expansion of one or multiple populations. In this project, we propose a novel approach to studying the spread of intelligent life in the galaxy, based on evolutionary game theory and implemented through fine-tuned agent-based simulations [3]. The evolution of systems constrained by reproduction rates, lifetimes, and limited resources, together with varying cooperation strategies within and between populations, may provide a new perspective for SETI research.

References

1. Carroll-Nellenback, J., Frank, A., Wright, J., and Scharf, C. (2019). The Fermi Paradox and the Aurora Effect: Exo-civilization Settlement, Expansion, and Steady States. The Astronomical Journal. 158. 117. 10.3847/1538-3881/ab31a3.
2. GTOC X Competition https://sophia.estec.esa.int/gtoc_portal/?page_id=980
3. Adami, C., Schossau, J., & Hintze, A. (2016). Evolutionary game theory using agent-based methods. Physics of Life Reviews. 19. 1–26. 10.1016/j.plrev.2016.08.015.
4. Landis, G. A. (1993). The Fermi Paradox: An approach based on percolation theory. NASA Lewis Research Center, Cleveland, Ohio.