ESA closely monitored this powerful space weather event, collected detailed information from all its expert service centres and disseminated key information with stakeholders. Although it is possible to forecast the probability of an eruption, the exact time of arrival of the CME and the precise magnitude of the storm was still difficult to predict but new ESA missions aim to reduce these uncertainties.
ESA’s Vigil mission introduces a new way of watching the Sun, observing its ‘side’ from Lagrange Point 5 (L5) to provide continuous insight into solar activity and monitor space weather conditions close to the Sun–Earth line. Scheduled for launch in 2031, Vigil will detect potentially hazardous solar events before they rotate into Earth view, giving us early knowledge of their characteristics and valuable time to protect spacecraft and critical ground infrastructure.
Current in-situ operational monitoring of the incoming solar wind is done from Lagrange Point 1 (L1) and allowed us to predict the impact of this solar storm only about 20 minutes beforehand. Located more than 15 million kilometres from Earth, approximately ten times further away than L1, another proposed mission, SHIELD, would be able to give an alert of such a storm around two and a half hours before impact, which would allow critical infrastructure operators to efficiently prepare and minimise geomagnetic storm impacts.