Number of objects will skyrocket - 2026 Space environment report

If we project the growth of the number of objects (active spacecraft and debris) in space into the future, the sharp year-on-year impact of the current launch behaviour becomes startlingly clear. The 'fuzzy lines' are a result of uncertainties (like the effect of the 11-year solar cycle), with the bold line being the average.

For years, a standardised long-term evolution of objects larger than 10 centimetres has been included in our Space Environment Report to compare potential future scenarios, every line higher than the one of the years before. Despite an improvement in mitigation efforts, we again see a net growth of the space debris population. Combined with the increase in constellations being launched, this has the Kessler syndrome’s runaway effect becoming visible much earlier in time as contributor to the steep incline of the 2026 line.

In fact, the prediction horizon has been reduced from 200 to 100 years into the future and still has much higher numbers than just one year ago.

This shortening of the extrapolation time period was caused by practical considerations. There were adjustments required because of the computational demands of the high numbers involved, as well as a result of the difficulty in designing the simulations. These are based on difficult-to-collect data that needs to come from credible sources and require verification in time-consuming processes. In the future, more data sharing on launch plans could aid space traffic management, mission planning and, crucial here, reduce the uncertainty in future projections even further.

Discover the 2026 ESA Space Environment Report.