On 12 August 2026, a total solar eclipse will sweep across Greenland, Iceland, Spain and part of northeastern Portugal. This rare event will provide a unique opportunity to study the solar corona. Ahead of the eclipse, researchers are using advanced computer simulations and the latest solar observations to predict what the corona will look like during occultation.
By comparing those forecasts with reality, scientists look to improve the models used to understand the Sun's magnetic environment and forecast space weather.
In the leadup to the total solar eclipse on 12 August, researchers from KU Leuven are using computer models to predict what the Sun’s corona will look like when the Moon blocks the Sun’s bright disk.
These models are far more than visual predictions. They are digital reconstructions of the Sun's magnetic environment, the same environment that drives space weather and fuels solar storms across the Solar System.
Much like weather forecasts on Earth, space weather forecasts rely on computer models to predict future conditions. Data from dedicated solar missions such as Solar Orbiter and Proba-3 help build on such models. Combining these with natural eclipse observations allows for more accurate and advanced simulations. These can then be used by scientists to estimate how the Sun’s magnetic environment is evolving and assess the likelihood of solar activity affecting Earth. Better models lead to better forecasts.
The eclipse acts as a natural reality check. By predicting the appearance of the corona before totality and comparing those forecasts with what the eclipse reveals, scientists can assess how accurately their models reproduce the Sun's three-dimensional magnetic environment.
That third dimension is one of the biggest challenges in space weather forecasting. From Earth, scientists can only observe one side of the Sun at a time, leaving important gaps in our understanding of its magnetic structure. Future missions such as Vigil aim to help fill those gaps by observing the Sun from a different vantage point.
In the meantime, computer simulations like the ones shown here are our best way to interpret our 2D images of the Sun and transform them into fully 3D interpretations.
Together, these observations and models provide a more complete picture of the solar activity affecting Earth, helping scientists improve space weather forecasts and providing earlier warnings of potentially hazardous solar storms. This gives satellite operators, astronauts and other critical systems and infrastructure more time to prepare and ease the effects of the impact.
To see daily simulation updates, click here! http://sun.esa.int/eclipse/
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